ANALYZING THE UNEMPLOYMENT HYSTERESIS FOR MEN AND WOMEN IN TURKEY UNDER STRUCTURAL BREAK


One of the issues having a great importance for all economies from the economic, social, and political point of views is unemployment. Beside identifying the causes of unemployment, assessing the outcomes accompanying unemployment phenomenon has also great importance. In this case, whether or not there is unemployment hysteria in countries and developing policies in this direction are highly important in terms of solving the problem. In this study carried out by setting off from this point, whether or not hysteria effect on unemployment, introduced as an argument against Natural- Rate Hypothesis by Friedman, is existent in Turkey was individually assessed for female labor force and male labor force markets. It is considered that making this distinction forming the original aspect of the study will make important contributions to developing policy suggestions for labor force markets. In this study, the periods of January 2005 and March 2019 were based on, and it was attempted to be tested unemployment hysteria for females and males in Turkey. For this aim, unit root tests with structural break were used. In the study, Zivot-Andrews (ZA) Test, among unit root tests with structural breaks, and Lumsdaine – Papell (LP) Test, among unit root tests with double breaks, were utilized. According to the results obtained, it was identified that there was unemployment hysteria for both females and males in Turkey. In other words, it was concluded that an unemployment shock that emerged in Turkey could not spontaneously reached equilibrium in the short time, and its effect continued in the long term. According to the results obtained, it was concluded that in Turkey, the shocks experienced in economy were also permanent for both groups and that unemployment acts as non- stationary in time. That the dates of structural breaks are the year 2008 and after this date forms one of the remarkable results obtained. From the results obtained, the fact that global crisis experienced is effective on Turkish labor force market is clearly seen.


Keywords


Keywords: Unemployment Hysteria, NAIRU, Unit Root Test with Structural Break

Author : Ayşe Esra PEKER -Ayşe BOYRAZ
Number of pages: 1503-1517
DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.29228/TurkishStudies.37003
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Turkish Studies-Economics,Finance,Politics
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